The Government delivered the budget today, and the numbers are staggering. I will start with my thoughts on where I think this goes in the next couple weeks. I tried to make this quick and to the point, to be consumed in 3 minutes or less. 

I have no clue if this will pass, but I will give my best prediction to where it goes.

I expect the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois to oppose the budget. They have already indicated in Parliament this afternoon that they would do so. The Greens I feel are 50/50. Elizabeth May opposed it directly after in her interview today, but signaled she would be willing to negotiate. So if needed, I am sure Mark Carney and the Liberals will give her some concessions if they need her vote. She is the only Green Party seat, and she can call this a win to her base if she gets something for it.

NDP posture: With an interim leader and thin finances after the April election, I think the NDP will most likely abstain. They have 7 seats, and only two votes are needed to pass. If they whole party abstains, (or even just 4 MP’s) they could avoid having to go through another election with their party coffers empty, and also avoid having to own the budget while letting it pass. A win-win for their current situation in my opinion.

Tonight’s floor-crossing in Nova Scotia: Chris d’Entremont, former Conservative MP for Acadie–Annapolis, crossed the floor to the Liberals tonight. That move shrinks the gap the government needs to clear. Net-net, it likely leaves the Liberals needing one—at most two—extra votes (or at least 4 abstentions) for the budget to pass.

That’s how I see it: I think of all the parties, the Liberals are perhaps the most eager for an election. I am not saying they want one, but I think this all goes to the final hour before they cut any deals and see where all the chips fall. If polling from this budget seems to improve, I think they would welcome one. Conservatives are inching back up in some polls, but very slowly, and the NDP are incentivized to step aside rather than topple the government right now. The Liberals would also pick up a lot of their voters if the NDP cannot run a proper, fully funded campaign. So while I am not saying the Liberals absolutely want an election, I don’t think they are dead set against one either. On the other side of the coin, if the reaction to this budget is negative, I think they will cut whatever deals they need to, and make sure the budget gets through.

Here is a brief summary of the budget, and some things that are in it.

Canada’s 2025 Federal Budget

Big picture: Ottawa is promising big, multi-year investment to “build, protect, and empower.” The plan leans on new housing/infrastructure dollars and sector competitiveness. The catch: the deficit track is still large, so value for money and execution will matter more than ever.

Six moves that could change things

Housing delivery gets centralized: Build Canada Homes becomes the federal “doer” (plus cash to Canada Lands Company to unlock federal sites). Good if it cuts red tape and partners with private builders instead of crowding them out.

Local infrastructure to unlock supply: New envelopes for servicing, roads, and health capacity—aimed at getting lots “shovel-ready.” Early reports peg this around the tens of billions. Execution matters far more than headlines.

Energy policy clarity: Budget text says that with effective carbon markets, tougher methane rules, and CCUS at scale, an oil & gas emissions cap would have “marginal value”—i.e., could be stood down. That removes a major uncertainty for Alberta investment.

Competitiveness & projects: A Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, faster major-project pathways, and LNG export licences extended to 50 years—longer tenure = more bankable projects.

Consumers & fintech: Frameworks for open banking and stablecoin oversight (more choice, clearer rules); first $150 of any cheque available immediately (useful for households/small and medium businesses).

Immigration reset: Starting 2026, PR targets stabilize near 380,000 with fewer new temporary residents and a higher share of economic-class entrants—better alignment with housing and services.

What this means for the average Canadian

Affordability: Faster servicing + private-sector delivery should help supply, but savings show up when projects finish—not on budget and headline day.

Cost of living & rates: Big spending can support jobs, but persistent deficits can keep pressure on inflation/interest-rate risks. Prudence still matters.

Banking convenience: Easier to move your data between banks/apps; fewer “Wild West” edges in crypto payments; faster access to cheque funds.

Grande Prairie angle

If GP shows up with shovel-ready servicing and road projects, it could be well-positioned to win funding that actually unlocks lots and multi-family sites. Be permit-ready.

Energy & supply chain: The emissions-cap signal + 50-year LNG licences improve investment certainty for Alberta—good for services, trucking, fabrication, rentals across the region.

Real estate

New-build first-time buyers: Factor federal measures and any builder incentives into your approval math; the real relief arrives as serviced supply hits the ground.

Sellers/investors: Watch approvals and infrastructure tendering in GP—policy + permits are the lead indicators for prices, rents, and vacancy.

What has to happen next

1) The votes in Ottawa

Budget confidence vote: MPs debate it. If it passes, the government stays and we move on to the real work.

Budget bills (BIAs): The promises get turned into actual laws. Those bills have to pass the House → Senate → Royal Assent. No bill = no change.

Spending authority: Big funds (housing/infrastructure) still need formal approvals before money can move.

2) Turning announcements into money on the ground

Programs get posted: Departments publish the fine print—who can apply, matching dollars, deadlines.

Deals get signed: Ottawa signs with provinces/territories; cities then submit their “shovel-ready” projects (servicing, roads, utilities, community facilities).

Procurement: RFPs go out, contribution agreements get signed. That’s when real dollars start flowing.

3) The rulebook stuff (takes longer)

Banking & fintech: After the law passes, regulators draft rules for open banking, stablecoins, and the first $150 of cheque funds available right away. Banks then update systems.

Energy & emissions: Government is signaling the oil & gas emissions cap could be shelved if carbon pricing, tougher methane rules, and CCUS are doing the job. That still means: finalize methane rules, lock in CCUS credit details, and keep carbon pricing aligned.

Immigration: The lower, steadier PR targets and fewer new temporary residents mainly kick in from 2026—so changes show up gradually.

What this means for Grande Prairie (what we can act on now)

Be permit-ready: Cities that have designs, costings, and timelines in hand will win funding first. GP should package servicing, roads, and utility projects now.

Line up partnerships: Builders, trades, schools, employers—get letters of support ready. Faster files win.

Energy & services: Clearer signals on emissions/LNG help companies plan. That’s good for local service, trucking, fabrication, rentals, and construction—once the regs/tax details land.

Tonight’s politics (and why it matters)

A Nova Scotia MP crossed the floor to the Liberals tonight. That gives the government a bit more breathing room on the budget votes. Net effect: the odds of the budget framework and the big implementation bills passing just went up.

Buckle up.

Chris