Against my better judgement, I am going to weigh in on the news this morning of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepping down as the leader of the Liberal Party. I will do that at the end of this post and share my personal thoughts. Which may or may not be a smart thing to do lol.
First of all, this is a real estate website, so what does it mean for home owners and buyers and in Grande Prairie with this news, here is a quick summary, none of it too earth shattering.
Potential Impacts on Grande Prairie Housing Market
Energy Sector Influence:
Grande Prairie’s economy is closely tied to the energy industry. A new federal government, particularly one led by the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre, might prioritize pro-energy policies, potentially boosting local employment and housing demand. Conversely, delays in policy clarity could create temporary uncertainty.Interest Rates and Lending:
Changes in federal fiscal policies could indirectly influence interest rates set by the Bank of Canada. Grande Prairie’s housing market, where many buyers rely on mortgages, might experience shifts in affordability if borrowing costs fluctuate.Population Growth and Immigration:
Grande Prairie’s population growth, driven by affordability and job opportunities, could be influenced by changes in federal immigration policies. This might either increase demand for housing or slow it if new policies reduce immigration inflows.Federal Infrastructure Spending:
Investments in infrastructure are critical for Grande Prairie’s growth. A leadership change might either enhance or reduce funding for local projects, impacting the economy and the housing market. Under the current government, the red tape on housing starts was cumbersome, hopefully a new government will eliminate some of these barriers.
Actionable Insights for Grande Prairie
For Buyers: Lock in mortgage pre-approvals now to mitigate the risk of rising rates. Political uncertainty can lead to economic fluctuations, making it wise to secure financing early. If they drop you can get a new rate, but if they rise, you are locked in at the better rate.
For Sellers: Consider listing your property earlier than you planned. Market sentiment may shift as federal policy direction becomes clearer, potentially affecting demand. Although this is tough to predict regardless of what happens. My personal opinion, not a lot will change on the housing market side in the short term, but you never know.
For Investors: Keep an eye on federal leadership changes, particularly policies impacting energy, immigration, and infrastructure, as these will influence Grande Prairie’s economic stability and housing market.
The leadership race and potential policy shifts may have significant implications for Grande Prairie’s housing market, particularly through their impact on the energy sector, lending environment, and infrastructure investment. Staying informed and proactive will be essential in navigating these changes effectively.
Now for my thoughts on this mornings news:
For the Conservative Party and Canadians as a whole. I don’t think this is a huge win, or even a win at all, as of today at least. Trudeau running again was a best case scenario for the Conservatives going into a 2025 election. The country and his party have tired on him and turned their backs on his leadership. Who will replace him? My guess would be Mark Carney, he has an economic background and that would be something he could go head to head with Pierre Poilievre on and actually be informed and knowledgeable about. I still think the Conservatives win in a large majority, but not as large as it would have been had Trudeau not made this announcement. Chrystia Freeland will also most likely throw her hat into the leadership race, but my guess is the Liberals will want to distance themselves from anyone closely tied to the Trudeau Government, and she has been a co-face of it for the last half decade or so. There are several other names, but none of them will get very far in my opinion. Those two are the ones you will probably hear the most in the coming weeks.
My biggest issue with all of this, is we now have a Prorogued Parliament, until the Liberals find a new leader. Canadians in the meantime get to sit in limbo while the Liberals try and right their ship. While this is nothing new in politics. Governments have done this in the past, regardless of party, and will continue to do so in the future when it suits their needs. The problem this time, is we have Donald Trump coming into office in two weeks. He has taken a hard stance against Trudeau and stood up for America first policies in the past, and has a clear mandate to do that again this time around. No matter what side of the political spectrum you sit on, it should be evident we need a leader running the country who has a four year mandate of their own negotiating and dealing with what is coming from our neighbors to the south, or at the very least a path to one. Whether that be an election immediately (which is never going to happen). Or more astutely, the Liberals and Trudeau should have made this call months ago and started this process sooner. They could have been prepared for this and wouldn’t have to hold Parliament hostage for the next two and a half months while they try to save their jobs, and Canadians face a potential trade/tariff war with the US that we can’t react to adequately in the meantime.
Once Trump takes office, there should have been a leader facing off with him, representing Canada with either a four year mandate, or like I mentioned a path to one in the future (a Liberal candidate who was prepared for an election after a rigorous vetting process and one their electorate wants. One who was settled and voted on over the previous six months, not someone who is thrown in last minute with this news today and will most likely be too late to the party to run an effective, successful campaign). Instead we get Trudeau, who is finishing up his round and driving the golf cart to the 18th hole at the Country Club, and he stopped writing his score down several holes ago. Trumps first few months in office are going to have a massive impact on Canada, and this is something a government should have been keenly preparing for with laser like precision and a plan of action on how to react for January 20th. Instead we are faced with a Prorogued Parliament until March 24th while the current government decides which way they want to go, and what is best for them in their immediate future.
The coming months will be interesting, toxic, and by the end we will all be ready for it to be over I’m sure. The writing has been on the wall for awhile with Trudeau & the Liberal Party, and I wish they put country over party a long time ago. They didn’t, and here we are. We have frozen Parliament two weeks before Trump takes office, who has threatened 25% tariffs on the country, which will have a massive impact on the economy, not just here in Grande Prairie, but all over Canada.
No matter what side of the political isle you sit on, no party should put their jobs over the Country. And all of them have, this isn’t just a Liberal issue, it’s a systematic one that all governments do, no matter the color. And we the taxpayer, once again get to foot the bill.
Chris